Georgia State — 2026 schedule & results record 4-3 · model's picks 4-3 so far
Proj rating -15.3 · SOS -8.1 · Mean wins 4.2 · Picked 1-11 · Vegas 3.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri 09/04 | North Carolina A&T | home | W 59–10 | -28.25 ✓ | +15.7 | 82% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Kennesaw State | away | W 31–17 | +7.5 ✓ | -5.2 | 38% | L ✗ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | UCF | away | L 30–44 | +17.5 ✓ | -17.0 | 16% | L ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Northern Illinois | home | W 35–14 | -8.75 ✓ | -3.0 | 44% | L ✗ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Old Dominion | home | W 42–10 | -2 ✓ | -8.3 | 32% | L ✗ | |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | James Madison | away | L 22–49 | +7.75 ✗ | -19.8 | 12% | L ✓ |
James Madison -12 · WIN +27 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Arkansas State | away | L 32–38 | -2.5 ✗ | -10.2 | 28% | L ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Coastal Carolina | home | — | -6.5 | -0.3 | 49% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | App State | away | — | — | -9.9 | 28% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Georgia Southern | home | — | — | -3.1 | 43% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Marshall | away | — | — | -15.4 | 18% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Louisiana | home | — | — | -7.6 | 32% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.